BTC Macro Timing — How it works

The thermometer (also called composite score) is a number between -100 and +100 summarising Bitcoin's macro state by combining 11 technical and on-chain indicators.

The idea: instead of staring at 11 charts, we compress their consensus into one reading. Cyclical BTC bottoms (2015, 2018, 2022) read between -80 and -100. Tops (2017, 2021) between +70 and +100.

Each indicator is computed from public data (price, on-chain network metrics, market caps), normalised to a -100..+100 scale, and contributes its weighted score to the thermometer.

• MVRV
  Compares market cap to the average cost basis of each coin. High readings → lots of latent profit (top). Low → most coins underwater (bottom).
• CVDD
  Cumulative Value Days Destroyed. Sums coin-days destroyed weighted by price. Marks brutal historical bottoms in each cycle.
• Miner Production Cost
  Estimated electrical cost to produce 1 BTC. When price falls near this cost, it has historically coincided with cyclical bottoms.
• Miner Revenue (90d)
  Daily total miner revenue smoothed. Extreme readings mark euphoric tops and capitulations.
• Supply in Profit
  % of circulating supply in profit. >95% tops; <50% bottoms.
• SMA 200 weeks
  200-week simple moving average. Historically acts as a floor during bear markets.
• SMA 300 weeks
  Slower; captures long-term adoption slope. Extreme deviations mark parabolic tops and generational bottoms.
• Mayer Multiple
  Price divided by daily SMA200. >2.4 tops; <1 bottoms. Classic.
• Drawdown from ATH
  % decline from all-time-high. >70% has been a solid cyclical bottom.
• Stablecoin Dominance
  % of total crypto market cap held in stables. Rises in bears (flight to safety), falls in bulls (rotation to risk).
• BTC.D vs USDT.D
  Relative dominance of BTC vs USDT. Sharp shifts detect capital rotations between BTC, alts and stables.

Each indicator has a weight (1.0 default) you can tweak from the dashboard or the bot (/indicators). The thermometer is the weighted mean of the indicators currently firing in their signal direction.

The regime defines the window against which each indicator's current value is measured to get its percentile (and therefore its score). The same raw value (e.g. MVRV = 1.5) may score -30 under one regime and +20 under another.

• Cycle (halving): percentile within the current halving cycle. Most sensitive to in-cycle extremes. Resets at every halving — unreliable in the first 18 months of a new cycle (too few samples).
• 2 years: percentile over the trailing 730 days. Most reactive; can saturate when the trailing window is dominated by a single market phase.
• 4 years: percentile over the trailing 1460 days (one full cycle). Default — most stable scores.

The 1W (weekly) and 1M (monthly) options in the header only control candle aggregation in the chart.

They do not affect the thermometer. The composite is always computed on daily data — candle speed only changes how you see price, not how indicators are scored. For different scores, switch the regime, not the timeframe.

The thermometer is split into 5 zones, colour-coded both in the dashboard and the bot:

• 🟢 Strong buy: ≤ -70
• 🟢 Buy: -30 to -70
• ⚪️ Neutral: -30 to +30
• 🔴 Sell: +30 to +70
• 🔴 Strong sell: ≥ +70

When you create alarms in the bot (/alarm buy -70), the bot pings you when the threshold is crossed — regardless of zone.

The chart uses lightweight-charts. Left-click on a candle pins a snapshot with the 11 indicator values at that moment. ESC closes.

Header toggles (desktop):

• Heatmap — composite intensity colour band
• Score — composite as a line overlay
• Halvings — vertical lines at each halving
• EMA 50 / 100 / 200 — exponential moving averages of close
• BB — Bollinger Bands (20, 2σ)
• RSI — RSI in a bottom pane with 30/50/70 reference lines

Drawings (desktop only):

• 📏 Horizontal: click places a line at the cursor's price
• 📈 Trend line: two clicks define points A and B
• ▭ Rectangle: two clicks mark opposite corners
• 🗑 Delete: click on any drawing

All drawings persist in localStorage, partitioned by timeframe (1d/1w/1M).

@getrichbtc_bot @getrichbtc_bot is the dashboard companion. Daily pushes, custom-threshold alarms, and natural-language Q&A backed by current data.

• /today — current thermometer state
• /chart — dashboard screenshot
• /indicators — 11 indicators with explanations and weight editor
• /alarm buy -70 — alarm when thermometer ≤ -70
• /alarms — list/delete alarms
• /menu — interactive menu with buttons
• /info — short explainer

Any free text is treated as a question for an AI fed with composite context and your last 12 messages. Restricted to BTC/crypto. Never gives investment advice.